PLACEHOLDER WARNING: DUMMY NOTIFICATION FOR SECURITY EVENT
Exciting new episode of Coolabah’s Complexity Premia Podcast out now!
Today I write that it is amusing how we have shifted from nobody believing our early May forecast that Aussie quantitative easing (QE) was coming, to it suddenly becoming the consensus view as the Reserve Bank of Australia grapples with an effective lower bound on its target cash rate. In fact, there are interest rate …
In predictably cutting its cash rate to a new record low of 0.75 per cent in October, the RBA moved itself one meeting away from initiating quantitative easing (QE), or outright purchases of bonds—as we controversially forecast in early May—to satisfy its full-employment target. Click here to read the full column or AFR subs can click here. Excerpt …
While studying at Cambridge University in 2003 I got a letter from former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, inviting me to meet him in New York. I naturally embraced the opportunity. I recall walking into his stuffy office overlooking Park Avenue, adorned with literally hundreds of photos of Kissinger standing alongside heads of state and …
Kissinger: Why Traders Are Smarter Than Investors Read More »
Today I argue that in response to the 2008 crisis central banks and treasuries have thrown the baby out with the bathwater. Unable to tolerate the pain associated with capitalism’s most important attribute, “creative destruction” – or the cathartic process by which markets punish bad businesses and reward good ones – government agencies decided that …
This weekend I write that the ECB’s decision to start buying bonds again to reduce the long-term cost of capital (aka QE)—coupled with the Fed cutting in a few days—will only amplify pressure on the RBA to follow-suit (click on that link or AFR subs can click here). I also argue that it is high time APRA …
Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and employment objectives (click on that link to read or AFR subs can click here). Excerpt enclosed: House prices are already higher than they have ever been in outright terms – and …
Level 3, 1 Bligh Street, Sydney NSW 2000
Level 38, South Tower, 80 Collins Street, Melbourne VIC 3000
Second Floor, 28 Austin Friars, London EC2N 2QQ
Level 17, 1 Albert Street
Auckland CBD, Auckland 1010
