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Should we worry about a spike in US inflation?

This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. Key former policy-makers and academics have raised concerns about US inflation risks stemming from an unprecedented peacetime stimulus delivered as the economy is recovering rapidly. However, overheating seems unlikely in the short term, with Fed forecasts suggesting it will take until …

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Video: Lessons from 30 years in credit markets

This is an interview with Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research, published on Livewire recently. Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research at Coolabah Capital Investments, has seen some unusual things in his three decades managing credit. From Argentinian gaming companies operating from river boats, European and UK poultry farms when bird flu first hit, an …

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Forecasting the housing boom

Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years. Read the overview enclosed below.

RBA QE is being outpaced by rest of the world, putting upward pressure on A$ and implying more QE is needed…

This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. In a world of near-zero interest rates, the stance of monetary policy is now better measured by the size and composition of a central bank’s balance sheet. In Australia’s case, the RBA’s adoption of unconventional monetary policy has seen its balance …

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Forecasting QE3 Program

In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case for the RBA launching QE 2.0 after the current $100 billion QE program, which has helped slow the ascent of both long-term interest rates and Australia’s trade-weighted exchange rate, expires. They focus, in particular, on …

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QE 2.0: Weak wages growth and the RBA’s full employment goal point to another round of bond purchases

In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case for the RBA launching QE 2.0 after the current $100 billion QE program, which has helped slow the ascent of both long-term interest rates and Australia’s trade-weighted exchange rate, expires. They focus, in particular, on …

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Active management is key to fixed income alpha

This is an article published on Livewire recently. Smart active managers in high-grade credit can find and exploit bond mispricings to generate alpha (or capital gains) that is as big, if not bigger, than the yield earned on these securities. This is Coolabah Capital Investment’s investment philosophy, which Portfolio Management Director Ying Yi Ann Cheng …

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Commonwealth budget, Oct 2020: Tracking better than the government’s forecast profile ahead of a windfall from iron ore

Authored by Kieran Davies, Coolabah Capital Investments. In this new report, we review our real-time tracking of the Commonwealth budget. Treasurer Frydenberg is expected to publish a budget update this week, with the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) reportedly due on Thursday. Treasury’s strong preference would be to publish no change to the outlook …

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Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021

This is an article published on Livewire recently. Ying Yi Ann Cheng, Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital Investments, says the manager spent almost one billion dollars buying assets in March 2020 in anticipation of the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus packages that ultimately lead to a strong market recovery. At the time, many investors …

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