coolabahcap

QE, the collapse of the money multiplier, and the bond multiplier

In a new report published today we argue that this year has seen a sea change in the operation of monetary policy in Australia with the Reserve Bank adopting several unconventional measures that have been part and parcel of its peers’ policy toolkits since the global financial crisis. With the cash rate now at the Reserve …

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Aussie house prices increase in October (in line with our March 2020 forecast)

This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a very mild 0% to 5% correction in national house prices followed by a recovery around six months later, CoreLogic has reported today that national dwelling values increased by 0.4% in October for the first time …

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Coolabah COVID-19 Forecasting Model 5th Most Downloaded Health Paper in World

Coolabah’s unique COVID-19 forecasting framework, which in March correctly predicted an early April peak for the number of new infections in key countries like the US and Australia when epidemiologists were advising the peak would be months later, is the 5th most downloaded public health research paper in the world according to the academic publishing …

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Global Empirical Forecasts of COVID-19 Trajectories Under Limited Information on the Efficacy of Intervention Strategies

Authored by Kai Lin, Christopher Joye, Nathan Giang, and Dr Adam Richardson; Coolabah Capital Investments. As the novel coronavirus and its associated disease COVID-19 started to rapidly transmit around the world in early 2020, the financial, social and health impacts represented a 1-in-100 year shock, the likes of which had not been observed since the …

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Peak Virus: Forecasting the Peak in COVID-19 Infections in the US and Australia

Authored by Kai Lin and Christopher Joye, Coolabah Capital Investments. As we move through “peak virus”, our team has spent time reflecting on significant trigger points that might precipitate fundamental changes in future market sentiment. In this note, we publish preliminary internal forecasts for the distribution of COVID-19 infections in the US and Australia focussing …

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Hedgie: More sharks on land than in water in these parts

This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. In this column I submit 10 big ideas for the next decade, which is bound to be a dangerous one, including: the coming of self-aware artificial intelligence; fusion between AI and humanity to create homo-digitus; the prospect of people living to 150 years …

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