Research

Forecasting the housing boom

Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years. Read the overview enclosed below.

QE 2.0: Weak wages growth and the RBA’s full employment goal point to another round of bond purchases

In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case for the RBA launching QE 2.0 after the current $100 billion QE program, which has helped slow the ascent of both long-term interest rates and Australia’s trade-weighted exchange rate, expires. They focus, in particular, on …

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Commonwealth budget, Oct 2020: Tracking better than the government’s forecast profile ahead of a windfall from iron ore

Authored by Kieran Davies, Coolabah Capital Investments. In this new report, we review our real-time tracking of the Commonwealth budget. Treasurer Frydenberg is expected to publish a budget update this week, with the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) reportedly due on Thursday. Treasury’s strong preference would be to publish no change to the outlook …

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QE, the collapse of the money multiplier, and the bond multiplier

In a new report published today we argue that this year has seen a sea change in the operation of monetary policy in Australia with the Reserve Bank adopting several unconventional measures that have been part and parcel of its peers’ policy toolkits since the global financial crisis. With the cash rate now at the Reserve …

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Coolabah COVID-19 Forecasting Model 5th Most Downloaded Health Paper in World

Coolabah’s unique COVID-19 forecasting framework, which in March correctly predicted an early April peak for the number of new infections in key countries like the US and Australia when epidemiologists were advising the peak would be months later, is the 5th most downloaded public health research paper in the world according to the academic publishing …

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Global Empirical Forecasts of COVID-19 Trajectories Under Limited Information on the Efficacy of Intervention Strategies

Authored by Kai Lin, Christopher Joye, Nathan Giang, and Dr Adam Richardson; Coolabah Capital Investments. As the novel coronavirus and its associated disease COVID-19 started to rapidly transmit around the world in early 2020, the financial, social and health impacts represented a 1-in-100 year shock, the likes of which had not been observed since the …

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