Research

Coolabah COVID-19 Forecasting Model 5th Most Downloaded Health Paper in World

Coolabah’s unique COVID-19 forecasting framework, which in March correctly predicted an early April peak for the number of new infections in key countries like the US and Australia when epidemiologists were advising the peak would be months later, is the 5th most downloaded public health research paper in the world according to the academic publishing …

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Global Empirical Forecasts of COVID-19 Trajectories Under Limited Information on the Efficacy of Intervention Strategies

Authored by Kai Lin, Christopher Joye, Nathan Giang, and Dr Adam Richardson; Coolabah Capital Investments. As the novel coronavirus and its associated disease COVID-19 started to rapidly transmit around the world in early 2020, the financial, social and health impacts represented a 1-in-100 year shock, the likes of which had not been observed since the …

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Peak Virus: Forecasting the Peak in COVID-19 Infections in the US and Australia

Authored by Kai Lin and Christopher Joye, Coolabah Capital Investments. As we move through “peak virus”, our team has spent time reflecting on significant trigger points that might precipitate fundamental changes in future market sentiment. In this note, we publish preliminary internal forecasts for the distribution of COVID-19 infections in the US and Australia focussing …

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August RMBS Default Index Results

Key Take-Aways:  Contrary to S&P data, Coolabah’s globally unique hedonic index of compositionally-adjusted Australian RMBS default rates shows defaults trending higher after controlling for the date of the RMBS issue, the average life of the loans, the average LVRs and geographic biases Coolabah has also developed another global first, which is a hedonically-adjusted mortgage prepayment …

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