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Timely insights and research on markets and macroeconomics from around the world overlaid with Coolabah’s unique contrarian philosophy.
Latest News
Coolabah Capital Investments publishes its analysis and insights across a wide range of platforms, including special academic research publications, essays, the Complexity Premia podcast, weekly in The Australian Financial Review, and on Livewire. Check out this page for the latest updates.
Report by Dr Stephen Bartos
An Assessment of Public Policy Implications of Decisions in relation to the NSW Generations Fund and NSW Government Debt.
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Forecasting Australian herd immunity and opening up our borders: early to mid 2022
Coolabah has attempted to forecast both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia and when governments will be comfortable opening-up...
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Navigating By The Stars, Part 1: Estimating Australia’s NAIRU
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) committed to reaching its legislated “full employment” objective in order to finally return...
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Video: Using artificial intelligence in bond markets and trying to short Virgin senior bonds
Enclosed is a new Livewire video interview with Jason Lindeman, Coolabah’s highly experienced Head of Credit Research, which covers: Why...
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Should we worry about a spike in US inflation?
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. Key former policy-makers and academics have...
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Video: Lessons from 30 years in credit markets
This is an interview with Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research, published on Livewire recently. Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit...
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Forecasting the housing boom
Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds...
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RBA QE is being outpaced by rest of the world, putting upward pressure on A$ and implying more QE is needed…
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. In a world of near-zero interest...
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Forecasting QE3 Program
In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case...
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QE 2.0: Weak wages growth and the RBA’s full employment goal point to another round of bond purchases
In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case...
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Active management is key to fixed income alpha
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Smart active managers in high-grade credit can find and exploit bond mispricings...
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Commonwealth budget, Oct 2020: Tracking better than the government’s forecast profile ahead of a windfall from iron ore
Authored by Kieran Davies, Coolabah Capital Investments. In this new report, we review our real-time tracking of the Commonwealth budget....
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Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Ying Yi Ann Cheng, Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital Investments, says...
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QE, the collapse of the money multiplier, and the bond multiplier
In a new report published today we argue that this year has seen a sea change in the operation of monetary...
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Aussie house prices increase in October (in line with our March 2020 forecast)
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a...
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Wattle Partners, Market Thinkers Episode #7
In the seventh session of Wattle Partner’s ‘Market Thinkers’ series, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, Christopher Joye, discusses with...
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Livewire: Don’t just sit back and hope – get active!
Livewire: Lessions from 30 years in credit markets
Livewire: RBA cash rate should be -3% to -4% hence QE to infinity
Livewire: Active management is key to fixed income alpha
Livewire: Why ASX hybrids are likely to perform strongly
Livewire: Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021
The Complexity Premia Podcast
Coolabah also publishes the popular Complexity Premia Podcast, deconstructing modern investment problems in capital markets. See the latest episodes below.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 25
Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is...
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 24
A special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Kieran Davies...
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 23
Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits...
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 22
The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up...
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 21
RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble No...
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 20
Our portfolio performance in 2020; Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally; The burgeoning conflict...
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 19
Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 18
The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid...
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Report by Dr Stephen Bartos
An Assessment of Public Policy Implications of Decisions in relation to the NSW Generations Fund and NSW Government Debt.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 25
Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems…
Forecasting Australian herd immunity and opening up our borders: early to mid 2022
Coolabah has attempted to forecast both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia and when governments will be comfortable opening-up our borders to both inflows and outflows of vaccinated human capital, subject to…
Navigating By The Stars, Part 1: Estimating Australia’s NAIRU
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) committed to reaching its legislated “full employment” objective in order to finally return inflation to its 2-3% target band, full employment…
Video: Using artificial intelligence in bond markets and trying to short Virgin senior bonds
Enclosed is a new Livewire video interview with Jason Lindeman, Coolabah’s highly experienced Head of Credit Research, which covers: Why Coolabah…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 24
A special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Kieran Davies…
Should we worry about a spike in US inflation?
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. Key former policy-makers and academics have raised concerns about US inflation
Video: Lessons from 30 years in credit markets
This is an interview with Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research, published on Livewire recently. Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research at Coolabah Capital Investments,
Forecasting the housing boom
Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years. Read the overview enclosed below.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 23
Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 22
The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…
RBA QE is being outpaced by rest of the world, putting upward pressure on A$ and implying more QE is needed…
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. In a world of near-zero interest rates, the stance of monetary
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 21
RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble No…
Forecasting QE3 Program
In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case for the RBA launching QE
QE 2.0: Weak wages growth and the RBA’s full employment goal point to another round of bond purchases
In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case for the RBA launching QE
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 20
Our portfolio performance in 2020; Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally; The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict.
Active management is key to fixed income alpha
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Smart active managers in high-grade credit can find and exploit bond mispricings to generate alpha (or capital
Commonwealth budget, Oct 2020: Tracking better than the government’s forecast profile ahead of a windfall from iron ore
Authored by Kieran Davies, Coolabah Capital Investments. In this new report, we review our real-time tracking of the Commonwealth budget. Treasurer Frydenberg is expected to
Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Ying Yi Ann Cheng, Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital Investments, says the manager spent almost one
QE, the collapse of the money multiplier, and the bond multiplier
In a new report published today we argue that this year has seen a sea change in the operation of monetary policy in Australia with the
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