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Timely insights and research on markets and macroeconomics from around the world overlaid with Coolabah’s unique contrarian philosophy.
Latest News
Coolabah Capital Investments publishes its analysis and insights across a wide range of platforms, including special academic research publications, essays, the Complexity Premia podcast, weekly in The Australian Financial Review, and on Livewire. Check out this page for the latest updates.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 31
US Recession; Bond Markets Bounce; Record Aussie Housing…
The global factor driving Aussie swap spreads
Our fundamental model of Australian swap spreads that we released in December 2021 started the new year well, predicting…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 30
How March 2022 officially became the worst month in history for…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 29
Whether Crypto is the 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 28
Looking ahead into 2022; Trajectory for inflation, rates and asset prices; NSW slashes debt issuance by $20bn; Machines entering bond market…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 27
House prices falling 20% if rates rise; Forecasting global wars; RBA vs bond bandits; October performance…
War Lab Revealed by ASPI’s The Strategist
Writing for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s The Strategist today, Coolabah Capital Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Christopher Joye unveils Coolabah’s new War Lab…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 26
Inflationary headwinds for duration/equities, ESG Activism, Evergrande, APRA closing $139bn CLF, RBA QE3…
Report by Dr Stephen Bartos
An Assessment of Public Policy Implications of Decisions in relation to the NSW Generations Fund and NSW Government Debt.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 25
Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems…
Forecasting Australian herd immunity and opening up our borders: early to mid 2022
Coolabah has attempted to forecast both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia and when governments will be comfortable opening-up our borders to both inflows and outflows of vaccinated human capital, subject to…
Navigating By The Stars, Part 1: Estimating Australia’s NAIRU
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) committed to reaching its legislated “full employment” objective in order to finally return inflation to its 2-3% target band, full employment…
Video: Using artificial intelligence in bond markets and trying to short Virgin senior bonds
Enclosed is a new Livewire video interview with Jason Lindeman, Coolabah’s highly experienced Head of Credit Research, which covers: Why Coolabah…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 24
A special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Kieran Davies…
Should we worry about a spike in US inflation?
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. Key former policy-makers and academics have raised concerns about US inflation
Video: Lessons from 30 years in credit markets
This is an interview with Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research, published on Livewire recently. Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research at Coolabah Capital Investments,
Latest Videos
The Complexity Premia Podcast
Coolabah also publishes the popular Complexity Premia Podcast, deconstructing modern investment problems in capital markets. See the latest episodes below.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 31
US Recession; Bond Markets Bounce; Record Aussie Housing…
The global factor driving Aussie swap spreads
Our fundamental model of Australian swap spreads that we released in December 2021 started the new year well, predicting…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 30
How March 2022 officially became the worst month in history for…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 29
Whether Crypto is the 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 28
Looking ahead into 2022; Trajectory for inflation, rates and asset prices; NSW slashes debt issuance by $20bn; Machines entering bond market…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 27
House prices falling 20% if rates rise; Forecasting global wars; RBA vs bond bandits; October performance…
War Lab Revealed by ASPI’s The Strategist
Writing for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s The Strategist today, Coolabah Capital Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Christopher Joye unveils Coolabah’s new War Lab…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 26
Inflationary headwinds for duration/equities, ESG Activism, Evergrande, APRA closing $139bn CLF, RBA QE3…
Report by Dr Stephen Bartos
An Assessment of Public Policy Implications of Decisions in relation to the NSW Generations Fund and NSW Government Debt.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 25
Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems…
Forecasting Australian herd immunity and opening up our borders: early to mid 2022
Coolabah has attempted to forecast both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia and when governments will be comfortable opening-up our borders to both inflows and outflows of vaccinated human capital, subject to…
Navigating By The Stars, Part 1: Estimating Australia’s NAIRU
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) committed to reaching its legislated “full employment” objective in order to finally return inflation to its 2-3% target band, full employment…
Video: Using artificial intelligence in bond markets and trying to short Virgin senior bonds
Enclosed is a new Livewire video interview with Jason Lindeman, Coolabah’s highly experienced Head of Credit Research, which covers: Why Coolabah…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 24
A special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Kieran Davies…
Should we worry about a spike in US inflation?
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. Key former policy-makers and academics have raised concerns about US inflation
Video: Lessons from 30 years in credit markets
This is an interview with Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research, published on Livewire recently. Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research at Coolabah Capital Investments,
Forecasting the housing boom
Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years. Read the overview enclosed below.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 23
Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 22
The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…
RBA QE is being outpaced by rest of the world, putting upward pressure on A$ and implying more QE is needed…
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. In a world of near-zero interest rates, the stance of monetary
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