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Timely insights and research on markets and macroeconomics from around the world overlaid with Coolabah’s unique contrarian philosophy.
Latest News
Coolabah Capital Investments publishes its analysis and insights across a wide range of platforms, including special academic research publications, essays, the Complexity Premia podcast, weekly in The Australian Financial Review, and on Livewire. Check out this page for the latest updates.
Active management is key to fixed income alpha
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Smart active managers in high-grade credit can find and exploit bond mispricings to generate alpha (or capital
Commonwealth budget, Oct 2020: Tracking better than the government’s forecast profile ahead of a windfall from iron ore
Authored by Kieran Davies, Coolabah Capital Investments. In this new report, we review our real-time tracking of the Commonwealth budget. Treasurer Frydenberg is expected to
Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Ying Yi Ann Cheng, Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital Investments, says the manager spent almost one
QE, the collapse of the money multiplier, and the bond multiplier
In a new report published today we argue that this year has seen a sea change in the operation of monetary policy in Australia with the
Aussie house prices increase in October (in line with our March 2020 forecast)
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a very mild 0% to 5%
Wattle Partners, Market Thinkers Episode #7
In the seventh session of Wattle Partner’s ‘Market Thinkers’ series, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, Christopher Joye, discusses with Jamie Nemtsas and Drew Meredith
How tight can semi-spreads go post QE?
Authored by Dr James Yang, Senior Data Scientist, Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer, Matthew Coleman, Senior Consultant, Coolabah Capital Investments. This brief note seeks to
Aggressive RBA Policy Easing in November
Authored by Kieran Davies; Coolabah Capital Investments. For a number of months now Coolabah Capital Investments (CCI) has forecast that the RBA would embark on
Latest Videos
The Complexity Premia Podcast
Coolabah also publishes the popular Complexity Premia Podcast, deconstructing modern investment problems in capital markets. See the latest episodes below.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 20
Our portfolio performance in 2020; Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally; The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict.
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 19
Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 18
The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid Deal; And More
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 17
Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 16
Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 15
Coronavirus Special, Central Bank Action, Next Crisis To Be Triggered by Subprime Corp Loans, Aussie Housing
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 14
2019 Performance Wrap-up; Coolabah’s Approach to Life; Coming of a Dangerous Decade; Rise of Zombie Companies; Lunch with One of the World’s Biggest HF Managers
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 13
Bond Market Returns in 2019; Welcoming Pinnacle to our Family; Human Frailties of the World’s Greatest Investor; RBA vs the Govt over Fiscal Policy and More…
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 20
Our portfolio performance in 2020; Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally; The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict.
Active management is key to fixed income alpha
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Smart active managers in high-grade credit can find and exploit bond mispricings to generate alpha (or capital
Commonwealth budget, Oct 2020: Tracking better than the government’s forecast profile ahead of a windfall from iron ore
Authored by Kieran Davies, Coolabah Capital Investments. In this new report, we review our real-time tracking of the Commonwealth budget. Treasurer Frydenberg is expected to
Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Ying Yi Ann Cheng, Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital Investments, says the manager spent almost one
QE, the collapse of the money multiplier, and the bond multiplier
In a new report published today we argue that this year has seen a sea change in the operation of monetary policy in Australia with the
Aussie house prices increase in October (in line with our March 2020 forecast)
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a very mild 0% to 5%
Wattle Partners, Market Thinkers Episode #7
In the seventh session of Wattle Partner’s ‘Market Thinkers’ series, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, Christopher Joye, discusses with Jamie Nemtsas and Drew Meredith
How tight can semi-spreads go post QE?
Authored by Dr James Yang, Senior Data Scientist, Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer, Matthew Coleman, Senior Consultant, Coolabah Capital Investments. This brief note seeks to
Aggressive RBA Policy Easing in November
Authored by Kieran Davies; Coolabah Capital Investments. For a number of months now Coolabah Capital Investments (CCI) has forecast that the RBA would embark on
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 19
Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 18
The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid Deal; And More
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 17
Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 16
Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing
Coolabah COVID-19 Forecasting Model 5th Most Downloaded Health Paper in World
Coolabah’s unique COVID-19 forecasting framework, which in March correctly predicted an early April peak for the number of new infections in key countries like the
Global Empirical Forecasts of COVID-19 Trajectories Under Limited Information on the Efficacy of Intervention Strategies
Authored by Kai Lin, Christopher Joye, Nathan Giang, and Dr Adam Richardson; Coolabah Capital Investments. As the novel coronavirus and its associated disease COVID-19 started
Peak Virus: Forecasting the Peak in COVID-19 Infections in the US and Australia
Authored by Kai Lin and Christopher Joye, Coolabah Capital Investments. As we move through “peak virus”, our team has spent time reflecting on significant trigger
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 15
Coronavirus Special, Central Bank Action, Next Crisis To Be Triggered by Subprime Corp Loans, Aussie Housing
House prices to rise at 20 per cent this cycle
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Today I write that housing boom is tracking more or less exactly as
Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 14
2019 Performance Wrap-up; Coolabah’s Approach to Life; Coming of a Dangerous Decade; Rise of Zombie Companies; Lunch with One of the World’s Biggest HF Managers
Hedgie: More sharks on land than in water in these parts
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. In this column I submit 10 big ideas for the next decade, which
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