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Exciting new episode of Coolabah’s Complexity Premia Podcast out now!
I’ve written a lot about the coming of Aussie QE since we first forecast it in May this year (the notion was dismissed by many at the time), and there is mounting evidence that the RBA is slowly starting to burnish its narrative on this front, as we have suggested they should do. The RBA’s August board …
Today I argue that since we blindsided participants by first putting the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia launching quantitative easing (QE) back in May, there has been no end of gas-bagging initially dismissing the possibility, then reluctantly acknowledging it and now thinking about how to trade it. In its August board minutes, the RBA …
At the end of May we prepared this essay on the changing probabilities in Trump’s trade war, which explained that the end-game for many in Washington was, in fact, no deal. The goal was, on the contrary, the imposition of widespread tariffs on all Chinese exports in order to shift US supply chains out of …
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. The back-story… I try to put my money where my mouth is. A couple of months prior to the Federal Election, we shifted more than $100m into franked ASX hybrids for several reasons, including: The risk of cash refunds on franking credits being …
Enclosed is an executive summary from a new paper that we have published on the changing probabilities in the trade war: Coolabah Capital Investments previously assessed that a myopic and mercenary President Trump would want to strike an expedient trade deal with China well in advance of the 2020 election to maximise his economic momentum …
Rated as one of the most watched shows on the Your Money TV channel ever, in this Peter Switzer episode CCI portfolio manager Christopher Joye debated some crazy economist whom he had never met, read or heard of before.
Coolabah developed the world’s first compositionally-adjusted, or hedonic, regression-based index of RMBS default rates, covering all prime deals that Bloomberg reports on (you can download the paper here). We update this index monthly, and the results are enclosed below. Contrary to S&P’s SPIN Index, we find that Aussie RMBS arrears (nb: legally there is no difference …
RMBS default rates trending higher as house prices plunge Read More »
Notwithstanding the franking debate last year, ASX hybrids were the second-best performing asset-class behind long-dated government bonds in 2018 with an attractive 4.9% gross return, smashing the AusBond Floating-Rate Note Index (2.3%) and the Aussie equities market including dividends (down -3.5%). Major bank hybrids are rated by S&P at BB+, which is technically in the …
The Smarter Money Funds are now available on the Australian Money Market platform as a complement to traditional cash and term deposit investments. Follow the guide below to place an investment in the funds. Step 1: Select Investor Select the client or account who wishes to invest. Step 2: Select Investment Type This page displays …
How to invest through Australian Money Market Platform Read More »
Key Take-Aways: Contrary to S&P data, Coolabah’s globally unique hedonic index of compositionally-adjusted Australian RMBS default rates shows defaults trending higher after controlling for the date of the RMBS issue, the average life of the loans, the average LVRs and geographic biases Coolabah has also developed another global first, which is a hedonically-adjusted mortgage prepayment …
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