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Exciting new episode of Coolabah’s Complexity Premia Podcast out now!
Today I write that the ACCC inquiry into the big banks, and the front book/back book fracas that reportedly precipitated it, are completely bogus. Let’s get a few facts straight. First, all businesses, including banks, are free to discount new product sales. Trying to prevent banks from doing so would be akin to telling Coles they …
Today I write that it is amusing how we have shifted from nobody believing our early May forecast that Aussie quantitative easing (QE) was coming, to it suddenly becoming the consensus view as the Reserve Bank of Australia grapples with an effective lower bound on its target cash rate. In fact, there are interest rate …
Here are some basic thoughts from my team on CBA’s new hybrid issue, which is not investment advice and should not be relied on for any decision-making. Note that this is also very high-level… Analysis of new CBA Hybrid: CBAPI CBA has launched a new hybrid security offering: PERLS XII, expected to trade on the …
On Thursday I debated and demolished my old foe Dr Steve Keen (of doomsday fame) on the contentious subject of Aussie housing. You might recall that Steve was the guy who garnered enormous media coverage for predicting a sensational 40 per cent drop in house prices during the 2008 global financial crisis. Aussie house prices are now 131 per …
In predictably cutting its cash rate to a new record low of 0.75 per cent in October, the RBA moved itself one meeting away from initiating quantitative easing (QE), or outright purchases of bonds—as we controversially forecast in early May—to satisfy its full-employment target. Click here to read the full column or AFR subs can click here. Excerpt …
While studying at Cambridge University in 2003 I got a letter from former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, inviting me to meet him in New York. I naturally embraced the opportunity. I recall walking into his stuffy office overlooking Park Avenue, adorned with literally hundreds of photos of Kissinger standing alongside heads of state and …
Kissinger: Why Traders Are Smarter Than Investors Read More »
Today I argue that in response to the 2008 crisis central banks and treasuries have thrown the baby out with the bathwater. Unable to tolerate the pain associated with capitalism’s most important attribute, “creative destruction” – or the cathartic process by which markets punish bad businesses and reward good ones – government agencies decided that …
This weekend I write that the ECB’s decision to start buying bonds again to reduce the long-term cost of capital (aka QE)—coupled with the Fed cutting in a few days—will only amplify pressure on the RBA to follow-suit (click on that link or AFR subs can click here). I also argue that it is high time APRA …
Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and employment objectives (click on that link to read or AFR subs can click here). Excerpt enclosed: House prices are already higher than they have ever been in outright terms – and …
Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and employment objectives (click on that link to read or AFR subs can click here). Excerpt enclosed: House prices are already higher than they have ever been in outright terms – and …
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