Exciting new episode of Coolabah’s Complexity Premia Podcast out now!

Aussie house prices increase in October (in line with our March 2020 forecast)

This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently.

Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a very mild 0% to 5% correction in national house prices followed by a recovery around six months later, CoreLogic has reported today that national dwelling values increased by 0.4% in October for the first time since April 2020. (We anticipated CoreLogic would reveal this in an AFR column published on October 23.)

The peak-to-trough loss due to COVID-19 can now be officially recorded as just 1.7% for the national housing market (including both metro and non-metro areas) and only 2.8% for the 8 capital city index. Again, this is smack-bang in the middle of our 0% to 5% correction forecast, which was conspicuously contrarian compared to almost all other analyst estimates, which predicted house price declines of 10% (CBA, ANZ, NAB, WBC), 15% (UBS, Morgan Stanley), 20% (AMP) or 30% (various doomsayers).

Read the full article here.


Scroll to Top