This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently.
Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a very mild 0% to 5% correction in national house prices followed by a recovery around six months later, CoreLogic has reported today that national dwelling values increased by 0.4% in October for the first time since April 2020. (We anticipated CoreLogic would reveal this in an AFR column published on October 23.)
The peak-to-trough loss due to COVID-19 can now be officially recorded as just 1.7% for the national housing market (including both metro and non-metro areas) and only 2.8% for the 8 capital city index. Again, this is smack-bang in the middle of our 0% to 5% correction forecast, which was conspicuously contrarian compared to almost all other analyst estimates, which predicted house price declines of 10% (CBA, ANZ, NAB, WBC), 15% (UBS, Morgan Stanley), 20% (AMP) or 30% (various doomsayers).
