This is an article published on Livewire recently. Ying Yi Ann Cheng, Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital Investments, says the manager spent almost one billion dollars buying assets in March 2020 in anticipation of the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus packages that ultimately lead to a strong market recovery. At the time, many investors […]
Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021 Read More »
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a very mild 0% to 5% correction in national house prices followed by a recovery around six months later, CoreLogic has reported today that national dwelling values increased by 0.4% in October for the first time
Aussie house prices increase in October (in line with our March 2020 forecast) Read More »
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Today I write that housing boom is tracking more or less exactly as we expected, and based on the RBA’s model of housing dynamics one should pencil in total capital gains of circa 20 per cent this cycle assuming no further reductions in
House prices to rise at 20 per cent this cycle Read More »
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. In this column I submit 10 big ideas for the next decade, which is bound to be a dangerous one, including: the coming of self-aware artificial intelligence; fusion between AI and humanity to create homo-digitus; the prospect of people living to 150 years
Hedgie: More sharks on land than in water in these parts Read More »
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Our thesis is simple: capitalism is dying and the myopic public policy statism replacing it is breeding a new wave of zombie companies that cannot survive in a normalised interest rate world. These zombies have loaded up on debt they can only just
Rise of the ASX Zombies Read More »
On the subject of the search for yield, one question I am regularly asked is whether retail investors should be switching from major bank hybrids
Hybrids vs High Yield Read More »
It is time to unveil a new expectation: if the RBA continues cutting through conventional and unconventional means, which is our central case, I expect that this economic cycle house prices will likely increase by about 30% with no immediate financial stability hazards. This follows on from our April 2019 projection that the 10% draw-down in Australian
House Prices to Increase 30% Read More »
Today I explain why most global high yield bonds are really just equity risk, with similar volatility and maximum 40% losses, while also lifting the lid on one of our most complex and bold predictions: the shock Standard & Poor’s upgrade yesterday of the major banks’ hybrids from their previous BB+ “high yield” rating to
How we predicted S&P’s shock upgrade of major bank hybrids to investment-grade Read More »
Today I write that the ACCC inquiry into the big banks, and the front book/back book fracas that reportedly precipitated it, are completely bogus. Let’s get a few facts straight. First, all businesses, including banks, are free to discount new product sales. Trying to prevent banks from doing so would be akin to telling Coles they
Big banks have never faced more competition… Read More »
Today I write that it is amusing how we have shifted from nobody believing our early May forecast that Aussie quantitative easing (QE) was coming, to it suddenly becoming the consensus view as the Reserve Bank of Australia grapples with an effective lower bound on its target cash rate. In fact, there are interest rate
How Aussie QE Will Work Read More »
