Bloomberg news also ran a feature story on how Coolabah’s quants picked the early April peak, which then motivated about A$900 million of purchases in March of assets that subsequently started mean-reverting in value in April. You can download a PDF of that story here.
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Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 76
Chris and Ying Yi unpack the Fed and RBA outlook, April portfolio performance, and where yields sit across fixed-income markets before turning to the escalating Iranian conflict and Australia’s 12 May Federal Budget. They assess how markets reacted, what the budget means for investors across housing, CGT and broader asset classes, and why Australia’s productivity problem, fiscal choices and capital flows could shape returns well beyond the next rate decision.
Chris and Ying Yi break down what rates markets are pricing in Australia and the US, and what that implies for housing, the Aussie dollar, and broader asset valuations. They assess the market impact of escalating conflict in Iran, where capital is flowing in periods of stress, and which assets are proving resilient. The discussion then turns to positioning—how to think about risk, where to hide, and where the most compelling opportunities are emerging in an increasingly volatile global environment.
Chris and Ying Yi challenge the Reserve Bank of Australia’s claim that policy is “close to balance,” arguing the data instead point to a persistent inflation problem driven by excessive fiscal spending, ultra-low unemployment, and years of overly easy monetary policy. They explain why the RBA may ultimately need to lift rates well above market expectations, why global inflation risks remain underpriced, and how AI capex, energy shocks, and Trump’s economic strategy could reinforce a higher-for-longer rate environment. The discussion concludes with the investment implications: avoid default risk, prioritise liquidity, and recognise why cash and high-quality bonds may now be among the most attractive assets available.
In this episode, Chris and Ying Yi run a top-down markets scan: recent performance and the outlook for yields, how hyperscaler AI capex is feeding into bond supply, inflation expectations and term premia, and where value is emerging across major asset classes. They cover the next moves from the RBA and the Fed, implications for housing and growth, and whether AI ultimately proves disinflationary. The conversation closes with the cross-asset tells—USD, gold and bitcoin—and what they’re signalling for the year ahead.
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