| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Strategy: Government Bond |
| Return (since Dec. 2023): 5.65% pa gross (4.57% pa net) |
| Net return volatility (since Dec. 2023): 4.27% pa |
Objective: The Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class targets returns in excess of its Benchmark, the Bloomberg AusBond Treasury 0+ Yr Index (BATY0) after management costs, by 3.0% to 5.0% per annum over rolling 3 year periods.
Strategy: The Fund aims to generate diversifying excess returns above the Benchmark for each Class through exploiting relative value mis-pricings in high quality government bonds and related Derivatives that have a low correlation to equity and credit markets and the level of interest rates. The Long Duration Class aims to deliver the Fund’s investment strategy over its Benchmark, the Bloomberg AusBond Treasury 0+ Yr Index (BATY0). It offers fixed-rate bond exposure by matching its interest rate duration to that of the Index, which may be a source of interest-rate risk.
| Period Ending 2025-11-30 | Gross Return | Net Return | Bloomberg AusBond Treasury 0+Yr Index | Gross Excess Return†| Net Excess Return†|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | -2.16% | -2.21% | -0.93% | -1.23% | -1.28% |
| 3 months | -2.01% | -2.19% | -0.57% | -1.44% | -1.63% |
| 6 months | 1.04% | 0.31% | 0.26% | 0.78% | 0.04% |
| 1 year | 5.46% | 4.23% | 3.67% | 1.79% | 0.56% |
| Inception pa Dec. 2023 | 5.65% | 4.57% | 3.87% | 1.78% | 0.71% |
†The Excess Return column represents the gross and net return above the Bloomberg AusBond Treasury 0+ Yr Index
| Ratings: Recommended (Zenith) |
| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Return/Risk: 5.65% pa gross/4.57% pa net (4.27% pa volatility) |
| APIR Code | ETL5578AU | Fund Inception | 13-Dec-23 |
| ISIN | AU60ETL55786 | Distributions | Quarterly |
| Benchmark | Bloomberg AusBond Treasury 0+Yr Index | Unit Pricing | Daily (earnings accrue daily) |
| Asset-Class | Government Bond | Mgt. & Admin Fee | 0.65% pa |
| Target Return | 3-5% pa above Benchmark after mgt. fee and costs | Perf. Fee | 20% of excess outperformance above the benchmark after mgt. fees |
| Investment Manager | Coolabah Capital Investments (Retail) | Custodian | Citigroup |
| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Return/Risk: 5.65% pa gross/4.57% pa net (4.27% pa volatility) |
Portfolio commentary: In November Coolabah’s Active Sovereign Bond Strategy returned -2.21% gross (-2.16% net), representing a challenging month for the strategy. This gave back a portion of the strong gains generated earlier in the year, driven primarily by an abrupt reshaping of the ACGB curve.
Over the last 12 months, the Strategy returned 5.46% gross (4.23% net), outperforming the Bloomberg AusBond Treasury Index (3.67%).
In November all bonds from the ACGB April 2029 to June 2035 maturities underperformed futures. This represented a significant regime shift in relative value dynamics. The move reset a number of our fair value signals and required a reassessment of our hedge ratios. This was significant for the portfolio because it impacted several of our long bond versus short futures positions.
The move was catalysed by a repricing of the RBA Cash Rate, following a strong domestic employment report and an unexpectedly high CPI print, which drove a dislocated response along the curve. For example, the market-implied RBA Cash Rate as predicted for the December 2026 meeting rose by 32 bps from 3.36% to 3.68%, or in other words, from a cut of 24bps to a hike of 8bps.
We continuously review and challenge our process and assumptions and this month we undertook an intensive examination of how these relationships evolve under stress and how our models and processes can be further strengthened.
In response, the portfolio was changed materially—it has reduced exposure to some bonds while maintaining exposure in positions that offer strongly attractive relative value—including several positions that have significantly underperformed in November. The portfolio has also established some new short bond positions, and as normal, all positions are hedged back to an overall economic duration close to zero.
Strategy commentary: November was a choppy month characterised by sharp cross-currents and high volatility, including apparent regime changes. This was exemplified by the subdued returns from bonds and equities. Coolabah's strategies generally delivered positive returns and/or tracked the performance of wider bond benchmarks.
There were sharp divergences in 10-year government bond yields around the world, which declined in the US (down 6 bps) and France (down 1 bp) while climbing in many other countries, including Italy (+2 bps), the UK (+3 bps), Germany (+6 bps), New Zealand (+21 bps) and Australia (+22 bps).
Whereas US markets were animated by the renewed prospect of another rate cut from the Fed in December, Antipodean investors were surprised by very strong inflation and jobs data that suddenly ruled out further interest-rate relief from the RBA. It would not be surprising if the Fed and the RBA ended their respective tightening cycles with similar cash rates in the 3.6% zone.
Such vicissitudes were echoed in noticeable divergences between cash (or physical bond) and synthetic credit-default-swap markets. Global CDS indices were universally tighter: CDX IG -1.5 bps; CDX HY -5.6 bps; iTraxx Main -2.0 bps; and iTraxx Crossover -10.4 bps.
Yet cash bond markets suffered from wider spread moves in the UK (+2 bps), the US (+2 bps) and Europe (+5 bps). In Australia, spreads widened across the capital stack: 5-year major-bank senior bonds +3.2 bps, 5-year major-bank subordinated debt +9.0 bps and 5-year major hybrids +18.5 bps, taxing investor returns.
Given the uncertainty in rates and credit markets, bond and equity performance was no less variable. Globally, the benchmark Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (+0.41%) and its duration-hedged equivalent (+0.22%) offered only modest upside. Within individual markets the picture differed markedly, however: in Australia the 4.9-year-duration AusBond Composite Bond Index lost 0.88% as yields soared, while the AusBond Floating-Rate Note Index, which carries no material interest-rate risk, gained 0.34%.
Many equity markets struggled amid prudent profit-taking in technology and other sectors as the end of a spectacular year approached. Year-to-date through 9 December, the S&P 500 was up 18.22%, the MSCI World had returned 20.71%, and the Nasdaq 100 had delivered 22.27%.
| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Return/Risk: 5.65% pa gross/4.57% pa net (4.27% pa volatility) |
Strategy commentary cont'd: Whereas the S&P 500 ground out a modest 0.25% gain in November, the Nasdaq fell 1.57%. The Euro Stoxx 50 delivered a modest 0.29% total return, driven by a 5.13% rise in the Euro Stoxx Banks Index (continuing the sector's stellar year, with YTD gains of approximately 45-50% by month-end). The FTSE 100 returned just 0.39%.
Rate hikes through mid-2024 (the ECB's policy rate peaked at 4.5%) helped to supercharge bank margins, with net interest income across Eurozone lenders rising 15-20% YoY in 2024 full-year results. Even as cuts began in June 2024 (totalling ~100 bps by November 2025), sticky deposit rates and loan repricing delayed margin compression, allowing European bank ROEs to climb to 11-12%—a multi-decade high.
In the Antipodes, equities performed poorly. While the NZX50 was off 0.44%, the ASX200 lost 2.66%. The ASX200's drawdown was a sharp reversal from prior months, representing its deepest decline since April 2025 (around 7-8% from mid-October highs) and its weakest monthly performance since September 2022. The pullback erased significant year-to-date gains, though the index remained up ~5% YTD heading into December.
November's Aussie equity weakness stemmed from reduced expectations for interest-rate cuts, sector-specific pressures and spillover from global volatility. The heavyweight financials sector fell ~7.2%—its worst since July 2022—as banks faced profit-taking, bearish positioning (e.g., CBA entered bear-market territory, down >20% from June highs) and regulatory headwinds like APRA's new caps on high debt-to-income home loans. The Aussie IT sector also plunged 11-17% for the month, mirroring a global tech/AI pullback.
In November 2025, major crude oil benchmarks—Brent (global) and WTI (U.S. benchmark)—experienced declines amid a volatile but bearish backdrop. Prices were pressured by easing geopolitical tensions, rising global inventories and persistent demand concerns.
This marked a continuation of the downward trend from earlier in the year, with year-to-date losses exceeding 20% for both benchmarks by month-end. Brent Crude closed the month down approximately 2.87%, settling at $63.20 per barrel on 28 November (from ~$65.07 on 31 October). WTI Crude fell roughly 3.98%, ending at $58.55 per barrel on 28 November (from ~$60.98 on 31 October).
Another key risk proxy, Bitcoin, experienced a sharp and prolonged decline in November 2025, marking its worst monthly performance since June 2022. The cryptocurrency fell approximately 21% on a price basis, closing the month around $90,915 (from ~$109,428 on 31 October), though intraday lows dipped as low as $82,000 in late November. This erased all year-to-date gains, leaving BTC down ~2% for 2025 as of month-end. The decline was fuelled by a toxic mix of macroeconomic headwinds, technical breakdowns and crypto-specific pressures, amplifying a global risk-off shift away from speculative assets.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.5 billion in net outflows—the largest monthly total on record—forcing issuers to offload BTC holdings and flood the market with supply. Corporate treasuries, including MicroStrategy (the largest BTC holder), faced pressure from falling equities and debt obligations, leading to ~$835 million in sales mid-month.
Gold prices surged in November 2025, delivering a robust +5.91% gain and closing the month at approximately $4,239 per ounce (from ~$4,003 on 31 October). This marked the metal's strongest monthly performance since March 2025 and contributed to its year-to-date rise of over 60%, with prices hitting new all-time highs above $4,200 mid-month before a slight pullback.
November's upside was propelled by macroeconomic uncertainty and gold's role as a premier hedge, outweighing a modestly stronger USD and rising bond yields. Central bank and investor inflows provided a strong floor, with the World Gold Council attributing ~30% of the year's gains to politics and macro risks alone.
Turning to the primary or new-issuance market for bonds, USD IG supply reached US$140 bn for the month, the busiest November on record, bringing year-to-date issuance to approximately US$1.65 trn. Corporate supply dominated, while financial issuance—typically close to half of monthly volumes—accounted for only around 20%, creating attractive opportunities. Coolabah remained selective, participating only where pricing was demonstrably fair in Morgan Stanley's OpCo deal and transactions from Google, Caterpillar and Pfizer.
| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Return/Risk: 5.65% pa gross/4.57% pa net (4.27% pa volatility) |
Strategy commentary cont'd: In EUR IG, the market absorbed €111 bn in November, one of the strongest monthly totals ever recorded. Corporates represented €75 bn, with Financials contributing €36 bn. The first week of the month set a new all-time weekly issuance record. Despite this heavy supply, demand remained robust: Financial deals averaged 2.8× subscription and offered healthy new-issue concessions. Corporate activity was similarly elevated, highlighted by Google's €6.5 bn multi-tranche offering and Novo Nordisk's €4 bn transaction—both met with heavy oversubscription.
In Australia, November saw approximately A$17 bn of primary supply in AUD IG credit. Financials dominated supply, making up 90% of November issuance compared to 70% YTD. November took YTD AUD IG credit issuance to around A$150 bn.
Within financials, there were six deals we considered in November: Westpac, National Australia Bank (NAB), BNP Paribas (BNP), Australia and New Zealand Bank (ANZ), Bank of Queensland (BoQ) and Suncorp Bank. We participated in all but BoQ. In corporate deals we participated in the Airservices Australia 12-year senior. This saw strong demand of A$2.8 bn for the A$500 m print. Within securitisation, we participated in the top tranche of the IDOL (ING Bank) AAA-rated RMBS deal. IDOL printed A$1.75 bn in the top tranche to A$2.1 bn of demand.
Our core global macro views remain unchanged:
The RBA worries it has misread the economy
In the wake of one of the RBA's largest forecast misses on inflation in decades, Deputy Governor Hauser said that:
"The economy may find itself boxed in by its own capacity constraints, like a racehorse trapped against the course fence, unable to surge forward … [such that] there may be little scope for demand growth to rise further without adding to inflationary pressures, and hence there may be little room for further policy easing".
Hauser backed his assessment by showing that the economy was recovering from a starting point of no spare capacity, where RBA staff currently estimate that demand is running slightly ahead of supply, forecasting excess demand to persist over the next couple of years.
This contrasts with past business cycles, when the RBA could lower interest rates without threatening the achievement of low inflation by overheating the economy because demand was less than supply.
In measuring spare capacity, Hauser focused on the output gap, which compares the level of activity in the economy with the level of potential output. An alternative measure of spare capacity - one that is more relevant because it is used by RBA staff in modelling inflation - compares the unemployment rate with the estimated NAIRU. On this metric, the labour market is tight if the unemployment rate is below the NAIRU and it is loose if the unemployment rate is above the NAIRU.
Like potential output, the NAIRU is unobservable and needs to be estimated, with the average of RBA staff estimates recently increasing from around 4.75% to almost 5%. Given the latest unemployment rate of 4.3% and RBA forecasts that it will hold steady at 4.4% for the next couple of years, this points to prolonged tightness in the labour market.
| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Return/Risk: 5.65% pa gross/4.57% pa net (4.27% pa volatility) |
Strategy commentary cont'd: This is a very different situation from past business cycles, when economic recovery started from a point of spare capacity in the labour market, in that the unemployment rate was below the estimated NAIRU in both recessions and downturns.
The closest parallel would be the very rapid economic recovery from the global financial crisis, when a loose labour market quickly turned into a tight one. The rapid economic recovery from the COVID-led recession of 2020 is a more distant parallel, when an unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus took more time to turn a much looser labour market into one as broadly tight as the current labour market.
For his part, Hauser pointed out that the RBA board has continued to override the staff estimate of the NAIRU, effectively pencilling in a lower rate of about 4.5% as "[the board has] been attempting in the last period to test how much capacity in the economy there is".
If the board's judgment proves correct, then the labour market is almost in balance with the unemployment rate a little below the assumed NAIRU and the staff forecasts implying that it will be broadly in balance as the economy continues to recover over the next couple of years.
A labour market that is almost in balance would still be a rare starting point for an economic recovery and almost as unique as the tight labour market implied by the higher staff estimates of the NAIRU. Compared with the business cycles of recent decades, it would only differ from the global financial crisis, which, as mentioned above, saw the labour market quickly swing from loose to tight.
Deputy Governor Hauser framed the economy recovering without the spare capacity common to past recoveries as new news, but it has actually been a feature of every RBA staff economic outlook for some years now. That is, successive Statements on Monetary Policy from 2022 onwards have forecast that the unemployment rate would be either below or, very rarely, in line with the estimated staff NAIRU.
Although the RBA board is now considering whether it is too optimistic in its judgments for both the NAIRU and the neutral policy rate, it probably won't make up its mind until it sees another couple of quarterly inflation reports and more data on unemployment. The ABS will start publishing a full monthly CPI later this month, but the board will probably wait for the quarterly CPI because some seasonally adjusted monthly prices could be volatile because of their very short history.
At this point, the RBA thinks it won't have to change its mind on either the NAIRU or the neutral policy rate. The RBA staff forecasts that much higher consumer prices in Q3 were essentially a one-off, with a small spillover to Q4 and a return to low inflation from the start of next year onwards. Such an outcome would see the RBA board stick with the assumption of a 4.5% NAIRU, but persistent inflation, particularly in the cost of housing and services prices, would prove confronting and could see the board acknowledge that staff calculations of a higher NAIRU were right and that monetary policy is not as restrictive as it thought.
| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Return/Risk: 5.65% pa gross/4.57% pa net (4.27% pa volatility) |
Strategy commentary cont'd:
| Fund: Coolabah Active Sovereign Bond Fund - Long Duration Class |
| Return/Risk: 5.65% pa gross/4.57% pa net (4.27% pa volatility) |