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Timely insights and research on markets and macroeconomics from around the world overlaid with Coolabah’s unique contrarian philosophy.

Latest News

Coolabah Capital Investments publishes its analysis and insights across a wide range of platforms, including special academic research publications, essays, the Complexity Premia podcast, weekly in The Australian Financial Review, and on Livewire. Check out this page for the latest updates.

The Complexity Premia Podcast

Coolabah also publishes the popular Complexity Premia Podcast, deconstructing modern investment problems in capital markets. See the latest episodes below.

August RMBS Default Index Results

Key Take-Aways:  Contrary to S&P data, Coolabah’s globally unique hedonic index of compositionally-adjusted Australian RMBS default rates shows defaults trending higher after controlling for the

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Complexity Premia Podcast Episode 7

Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 16

May 13, 2020

Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing

Coolabah COVID-19 Forecasting Model 5th Most Downloaded Health Paper in World

April 29, 2020

Coolabah’s unique COVID-19 forecasting framework, which in March correctly predicted an early April peak for the number of new infections...

Global Empirical Forecasts of COVID-19 Trajectories Under Limited Information on the Efficacy of Intervention Strategies

April 2, 2020

Authored by Kai Lin, Christopher Joye, Nathan Giang, and Dr Adam Richardson; Coolabah Capital Investments. As the novel coronavirus and...

Peak Virus: Forecasting the Peak in COVID-19 Infections in the US and Australia

March 23, 2020

Authored by Kai Lin and Christopher Joye, Coolabah Capital Investments. As we move through “peak virus”, our team has spent...

Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 15

March 10, 2020

Coronavirus Special, Central Bank Action, Next Crisis To Be Triggered by Subprime Corp Loans, Aussie Housing

House prices to rise at 20 per cent this cycle

February 17, 2020

This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Today I write that housing boom is tracking...

Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 14

January 28, 2020

2019 Performance Wrap-up; Coolabah’s Approach to Life; Coming of a Dangerous Decade; Rise of Zombie Companies; Lunch with One of...

Hedgie: More sharks on land than in water in these parts

December 30, 2019

This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. In this column I submit 10 big ideas...

Rise of the ASX Zombies

December 27, 2019

Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 13

December 16, 2019

Bond Market Returns in 2019; Welcoming Pinnacle to our Family; Human Frailties of the World’s Greatest Investor; RBA vs the...

Pinnacle Investment Management Joins Coolabah Capital Family

December 12, 2019

We are delighted to announce that Pinnacle Investment Management (ASX: PNI) has joined the Coolabah Capital Investments' family.

CCI Cornerstones Landmark RMBS deal

November 24, 2019

Coolabah Capital Investments was delighted to cornerstone the first-ever RMBS bond issue—offered by CBA—that has priced off the RBA cash...

SwitzerTV, Episode 12

November 22, 2019

Coolabah Capital's Chris Joye, Domain's Jason Pellegrino and PEXA's Marcus Price discuss the property market rebound.

Alpha Manager Award | Money Management

Coolabah Capital selected as one of Australia’s Top Alpha Managers

November 18, 2019

On the subject of the search for yield, one question I am regularly asked is whether retail investors should be...

Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 12

November 14, 2019

Competition Facing the Big Banks; Is High Yield Debt Just Equities in Disguise; Aussie Housing; RBA Rate Cuts & QE;...

Hybrids vs High Yield

November 3, 2019

On the subject of the search for yield, one question I am regularly asked is whether retail investors should be...

House Prices to Increase 30%

November 2, 2019

It is time to unveil a new expectation: if the RBA continues cutting through conventional and unconventional means, which is...

How we predicted S&P’s shock upgrade of major bank hybrids to investment-grade

October 25, 2019

Today I explain why most global high yield bonds are really just equity risk, with similar volatility and maximum 40%...

Big banks have never faced more competition…

October 18, 2019

Today I write that the ACCC inquiry into the big banks, and the front book/back book fracas that reportedly precipitated it,...

How Aussie QE Will Work

October 11, 2019

Today I write that it is amusing how we have shifted from nobody believing our early May forecast that Aussie...

Thoughts on CBA Perls XII

October 10, 2019

Here are some basic thoughts from my team on CBA’s new hybrid issue, which is not investment advice and should...

Complexity Premia - Episode 11

Complexity Premia Podcast, Episode 11

October 9, 2019

Keen vs Joye; Is Capitalism Dead; CBA’s New Hybrid Deal; Hybrids vs Foreign High Yield; the Coming of Aussie QE...

Demolishing a housing doomsayer

October 4, 2019

On Thursday I debated and demolished my old foe Dr Steve Keen (of doomsday fame) on the contentious subject of Aussie housing....

As predicted, RBA QE is coming soon…

October 1, 2019

In predictably cutting its cash rate to a new record low of 0.75 per cent in October, the RBA moved...

Kissinger: Why Traders Are Smarter Than Investors

September 27, 2019

While studying at Cambridge University in 2003 I got a letter from former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, inviting...

Capitalism is dead

September 20, 2019

Today I argue that in response to the 2008 crisis central banks and treasuries have thrown the baby out with...

ECB shunts RBA one step closer to QE

September 14, 2019

This weekend I write that the ECB’s decision to start buying bonds again to reduce the long-term cost of capital...

This housing boom is very different

September 6, 2019

Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from...

Housing Boom is Back, Baby!

August 30, 2019

Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from...

RBA Signalling QE May Be Coming

August 25, 2019

I’ve written a lot about the coming of Aussie QE since we first forecast it in May this year (the notion was...

Rise of the ASX Zombies

This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Our thesis is simple: capitalism is dying and the myopic public policy statism

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Hybrids vs High Yield

On the subject of the search for yield, one question I am regularly asked is whether retail investors should be switching from major bank hybrids

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How Aussie QE Will Work

Today I write that it is amusing how we have shifted from nobody believing our early May forecast that Aussie quantitative easing (QE) was coming,

Read More >

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