{"id":1101,"date":"2019-08-30T08:30:14","date_gmt":"2019-08-29T22:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/coolabahcap.wpengine.com\/?p=1101"},"modified":"2019-11-11T09:58:19","modified_gmt":"2019-11-10T23:58:19","slug":"livewire-article-housing-boom-i-back-baby","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/blog\/2019\/08\/30\/livewire-article-housing-boom-i-back-baby\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Boom is Back, Baby!"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"1101\" class=\"elementor elementor-1101\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c75419f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c75419f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0dcc7c2\" data-id=\"0dcc7c2\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-acc18f3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"acc18f3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and employment objectives (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FinancialReview\/status\/1169769682867511297?s=20\">click on that link to read\u00a0<\/a>or AFR subs can\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/wealth\/personal-finance\/this-housing-boom-will-be-different-20190906-p52ok5\">click here<\/a>). Excerpt enclosed:<\/p><p><em>House prices\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/link\/follow-20180501-p52mh4\">are already higher than they have ever been<\/a>\u00a0in outright terms \u2013 and compared to incomes \u2013 before the start of any upswing. Household debt relative to incomes has likewise never been more elevated.<\/em><\/p><p><em>And care of the royal commission and the regulator forcing banks to tighten their lending standards over many years, it has never been more difficult to get a loan from a supervised lender, especially if you are a speculative investor.<\/em><\/p><p><em>Even if our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/property\/residential\/housing-bust-could-be-over-quickly-20190426-p51hgj\">contrarian April 2019 forecast<\/a>\u00a0for a 5 to 10 per cent increase in national house prices over the 12 months following the second RBA rate cut comes to fruition, we will by that time have had no net growth in the value of Australia\u2019s bricks and mortar for more than three years.<\/em><\/p><p><em>That\u2019s because we have benefited from an immensely cathartic 10.7 per cent correction in property prices triggered by APRA\u2019s \u201cmacro-prudential\u201d constraints on irresponsible lending, which started in 2014 and progressively ramped up through to early 2017, forcing mortgage rates on investment and interest-only loans markedly higher.<\/em><\/p><p><em>This precipitated the largest drop in home values in modern Australian history, which is frankly exactly what we needed.<\/em><\/p><p><em>In April 2017 when house prices were still appreciating, we projected a 10 per cent decline under the Coalition, which we subsequently warned could rise to 15 per cent under Labor.<\/em><\/p><p><em>Had Scott Morrison not prevailed at the ballot box, it is all but certain Labor\u2019s policies to eliminate negative gearing and hike capital gains tax by 50 per cent would have pushed prices materially lower.<\/em><\/p><p><em>Yet as we look ahead, the RBA now knows that it can safely continue to chisel interest rates lower under the protective veil of APRA\u2019s powerful suite of counter-measures that have a proven history of cauterising financial stability concerns.<\/em><\/p><p><em>This means that a repeat of a speculative, investor-driven bubble fuelled by loose lending is extremely unlikely.<\/em><\/p><p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FinancialReview\/status\/1169769682867511297?s=20\">Read full column here.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and employment objectives (click on that link to read&nbsp;or AFR subs can&nbsp;click here). Excerpt enclosed: House prices&nbsp;are already higher than they have ever been&nbsp;in outright terms \u2013 and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1155,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,19],"tags":[25],"class_list":["post-1101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","category-livewire","tag-property"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Housing Boom is Back, Baby! - US | Coolabah Capital Investments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/blog\/2019\/08\/30\/livewire-article-housing-boom-i-back-baby\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Housing Boom is Back, Baby! - US | Coolabah Capital Investments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and employment objectives (click on that link to read&nbsp;or AFR subs can&nbsp;click here). 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I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and employment objectives (click on that link to read&nbsp;or AFR subs can&nbsp;click here). Excerpt enclosed: House prices&nbsp;are already higher than they have ever been&nbsp;in outright terms \u2013 and&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1101"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1101\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coolabahcapital.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}