The global factor driving Aussie swap spreads
Our fundamental model of Australian swap spreads that we released in December 2021 started the new year well, predicting…
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Livewire
War Lab Revealed by ASPI’s The Strategist
Writing for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s The Strategist today, Coolabah Capital Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Christopher Joye unveils Coolabah’s new War Lab…
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Forecasting Australian herd immunity and opening up our borders: early to mid 2022
Coolabah has attempted to forecast both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia and when governments will be comfortable opening-up our borders to both inflows and outflows of vaccinated human capital, subject to…
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Navigating By The Stars, Part 1: Estimating Australia’s NAIRU
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) committed to reaching its legislated “full employment” objective in order to finally return inflation to its 2-3% target band, full employment…
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Video: Using artificial intelligence in bond markets and trying to short Virgin senior bonds
Enclosed is a new Livewire video interview with Jason Lindeman, Coolabah’s highly experienced Head of Credit Research, which covers: Why Coolabah…
Should we worry about a spike in US inflation?
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. Key former policy-makers and academics have raised concerns about US inflation risks stemming from an unprecedented peacetime stimulus delivered as the economy is recovering rapidly. However, overheating seems unlikely in the short term, with Fed forecasts suggesting it will take until
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Video: Lessons from 30 years in credit markets
This is an interview with Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research, published on Livewire recently. Jason Lindeman, Head of Credit Research at Coolabah Capital Investments, has seen some unusual things in his three decades managing credit. From Argentinian gaming companies operating from river boats, European and UK poultry farms when bird flu first hit, an
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RBA QE is being outpaced by rest of the world, putting upward pressure on A$ and implying more QE is needed…
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. In a world of near-zero interest rates, the stance of monetary policy is now better measured by the size and composition of a central bank’s balance sheet. In Australia’s case, the RBA’s adoption of unconventional monetary policy has seen its balance
QE 2.0: Weak wages growth and the RBA’s full employment goal point to another round of bond purchases
In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case for the RBA launching QE 2.0 after the current $100 billion QE program, which has helped slow the ascent of both long-term interest rates and Australia’s trade-weighted exchange rate, expires. They focus, in particular, on
Active management is key to fixed income alpha
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Smart active managers in high-grade credit can find and exploit bond mispricings to generate alpha (or capital gains) that is as big, if not bigger, than the yield earned on these securities. This is Coolabah Capital Investment’s investment philosophy, which Portfolio Management Director Ying Yi Ann Cheng
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